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Field note · Incident study

Elections Are Built to Expect Mistakes. Your Company Isn't.

In June 2024, the week of Colorado’s primary, the Secretary of State’s office posted a spreadsheet about voting equipment to its public website. On a hidden tab, a staffer had been keeping BIOS passwords for voting system components, a kind of scratch paper nobody else knew about. Anyone who downloaded the file and clicked “unhide” could read them. The office never noticed. Four months later someone outside the office did, twelve days before a presidential election.

Nothing happened, and not because anyone caught the mistake in time. Nobody did. Nothing happened because Colorado’s election system was built on the assumption that a mistake like this would happen and go unnoticed. Each leaked password was one of two needed to change a machine, and the other was held by a different office. Using either meant standing in front of that machine, behind a background check and a badge. And after the vote, an audit checked the count against paper.

That is the whole lesson, and it’s about to apply to every company: you will not catch the mistake in time, so build so it doesn’t matter. Tomorrow is Election Day in the United States, and in October the federal agencies that support it sent election officials two warnings. One says AI-written phishing can no longer be reliably spotted. The other files clicking a phishing link alongside mistakes like Colorado’s, as an unintentional insider threat. Put together, they say every organization is going to have its own hidden tab. The question is whether it’s built like Colorado.

4 mo.Colorado’s voting-equipment passwords sat on a public website before anyone noticed, with no compromise found
54%Click rate on fully AI-written spear phishing, matching human experts (control group: 12%)
62%Share of breaches involving a human element (Verizon 2026 DBIR)
48%Share of breaches involving a third party, up from 30% a year earlier (Verizon 2026 DBIR)
Status, as of writing: The FBI/CISA announcement of October 16 (I-101626-PSA) describes techniques and trends, not an attack under way. Nothing in this note claims the 2026 election has been compromised, and it takes no position on any party, candidate or voting system. Reported counts of the Colorado counties affected differ (the state said 34 of 64), so this note doesn’t rely on one. The Verizon figures cover breaches in 2025.

The record

Colorado, 2024, in six steps. At every point where someone could have caught the mistake, nobody did. At every point where the design had to hold, it held.

01

Before June 2024 · scratch paper

A staffer in the elections division keeps voting-system BIOS passwords on a hidden tab of a working spreadsheet. The later investigation found nobody else knew the tab existed. It’s the most ordinary security mistake there is: a convenient place to put something sensitive, made by someone trying to get their job done. Every company has a version of this tab.

Plain-text passwordsOne person knew
02

June 2024 · posted, primary week

The spreadsheet goes up on the Secretary of State’s public website, hidden tab and all. There is no step where a second person looks at a file before it is published. The staffer later leaves the office on good terms, months before anyone finds out. The first chance to catch the mistake was a review that didn’t exist.

Public fileNo review before posting
03

June – October 2024 · four months, unnoticed

The file sits in public through the primary and into the general election season. Nobody in the office notices, and there’s nothing unusual about that. Mistakes like this are usually found late or never, and the one person who knew about the tab had moved on. Detection, the defense most organizations are built around, has already failed.

UndetectedPrimary and general
04

October 24, 2024 · found from outside

The office is alerted from outside and takes the file down the same day, twelve days before the election. On October 29 the state Republican Party makes the leak public. When the mistake finally is caught, it is caught by someone else, and late. Had the first person to find it been an attacker instead of a critic, they would have had four months to use it.

Caught by an outsiderRemoved same day
05

Late October 2024 · the design holds

This is where it should have gone wrong, and didn’t. The state says each exposed password was one of two needed to change the equipment, with the second held by the county, and that either one requires in-person access to the specific machine, behind a background check and an ID badge. Roughly thirty state staff and cybersecurity personnel go out to the affected counties to change passwords. A Denver judge turns down a request to force hand counting, noting the remediation already under way. Recovery is routine because the damage was limited before the mistake was ever made.

Half a keyPhysical access + badgePasswords changed
06

November 5 – December 9, 2024 · checked, then fixed

The election runs on those machines. Colorado, the first state to run risk-limiting audits statewide, checks the count against the paper ballots, and the audit confirms the equipment worked as intended. On December 9 an outside investigation calls the leak unintentional and makes seven recommendations, among them no hiding sensitive data in documents, passwords kept only in a password safe, a review before anything is posted, and a better handover when staff leave. The fixes go after the process, not the person.

Audit against paperSeven fixesRuled unintentional

Count the chances to catch the mistake: a review before posting, four months of the office looking at its own website, the staffer’s departure. All of them were missed. What protected the election was decided years earlier, by people who assumed someone would eventually make exactly this kind of mistake and never notice. That’s the design worth copying. Colorado didn’t catch its mistake in time, and it didn’t need to.

Why it’s everyone’s now

Colorado’s mistake didn’t involve an attacker. The October federal warnings are about what happens when one shows up, and they describe a world where Colorado’s situation, one person’s error that nobody catches, becomes routine. Four shifts explain why.

The tell is gone. For a decade, security training leaned on phishing being badly written. The October 16 FBI/CISA announcement says AI now lets attackers write in native languages and everyday vernacular, in language that “appears genuine.” The research agrees. In a 2024 study by Fred Heiding, Bruce Schneier and colleagues, spear-phishing emails written and personalized entirely by an AI model were clicked by 54% of participants, the same rate as emails written by human experts. A generic phishing email got 12%. When more than half of people click, catching it is no longer a plan.

The voice can be faked, cheaply. The same announcement warns that deepfakes are being used to impersonate real people. Election officials have already seen it. On January 21, 2024, two days before New Hampshire’s primary, thousands of voters got a robocall in an AI-cloned version of President Biden’s voice telling them to save their vote for November. The magician who produced the audio for political consultant Steve Kramer said he was paid $150. The FCC fined Kramer $6 million, though a state jury acquitted him of all 22 criminal charges in June 2025. Calling back a familiar voice used to be how you checked a suspicious request. It now costs about as much as dinner to fake.

The channel moved off the filter. The FBI has seen more smishing through encrypted chat apps in the past year. A decade of investment went into scanning corporate email. Nothing scans a text in a personal messaging app.

The click is now filed next to the hidden tab. This is the shift that ties it together. The October insider guidance from DHS, CISA, the FBI and the Election Assistance Commission lists clicking a phishing link as an unintentional insider threat, in the same category as sending a sensitive document to the wrong address. The federal government now treats the phishing click as the same kind of event as Colorado’s spreadsheet: an honest mistake, made inside, that you should expect and plan to contain rather than hope to prevent.

The majority of insider threats are unintentional, either through negligence or accident.

— DHS I&A, CISA, FBI and EAC, Mitigating Insider Threats to U.S. Election Systems, October 2026

Put the four together and every organization is going to have its own Colorado. Somebody will click the perfect email, approve the request from the cloned voice, or leave the password in the wrong place, and nobody will notice in time. That part is settled. What isn’t settled is whether the mistake opens half a key or the whole building.

What elections assume

Set Colorado’s design next to what the breach and fraud data says about companies. The difference comes down to one assumption about the person on the inside.

ElectionsAssumes: someone slips
One secret is half a key.Colorado’s leaked passwords were useless without a second one held by a different office.
Nobody acts alone.Ballots are handled in teams of two, and a contractor working on a critical system has a second person present.
Outsiders meet the insiders’ standard.Vendors and contractors get the same rules, on their own accounts, with remote access restricted.
There is a check after the fact.The audit compares the count to paper, so a mistake nobody caught still can’t change the result unseen.
Companies, by the numbersAssumes: nobody slips
One credential opens the door.Stolen or misused credentials appeared somewhere in 39% of breaches in Verizon’s 2026 report.
One person moves the money.Business email compromise, which works when one person can redirect a payment on the strength of a message, drew $3.05 billion in reported losses to the FBI in 2025.
Outsiders are half the story.A third party was involved in 48% of breaches, up from 30% a year earlier.
The check is the click rate.Programs still score people on spotting lures that get clicked 54% of the time when an AI writes them.

Colorado never caught its mistake in time. It didn’t need to.

— Our read of the public record

What to copy

Election security was built for organizations with small budgets, temporary staff and hard deadlines, which is why it copies cheaply. Each of these assumes the mistake will happen and limits what it can reach.

Make the few dangerous actions need two people. Elections don’t put two people on everything. They put two people on the ballots. The corporate equivalent is a short list, usually fewer than ten actions, where one fooled person causes most of the damage: changing a vendor’s bank details, redirecting payroll, resetting someone’s multi-factor authentication, creating an administrator account, approving a payment over a set amount. Each one should need a second person who confirms through a channel the request didn’t arrive on. The second person isn’t smarter. The attacker now has to fool two people through two channels at once, which costs a lot more than a $150 voice.

Count your AI agents as temporary staff. The election guidance lists the insiders it worries about: temporary staff, volunteers, vendors, contractors. Most companies added a category this year that the list doesn’t name, AI agents working with an employee’s access. They’re the purest version of the unintentional insider. You can’t train them to spot a lure, since an email or web page with the right instructions in it works on an agent the way a perfect phishing email works on a person, and they don’t notice their own mistakes. On April 24, 2026, a coding agent at a small SaaS company deleted its production database and the backups in nine seconds, with one API call. Colorado’s rule applies unchanged. No agent should hold the whole key: give each one its own scoped account and an end date, like any contractor, and put a person on the other side of every action on your short list.

Give every outsider their own account and an end date. The federal guidance asks election offices to put vendors and contractors on separate accounts, under employee rules, with remote access restricted. With nearly half of breaches now involving a third party, that’s no longer a hygiene item. Scope each outside account to the job, set the end date the day it’s created, and review the full list on a schedule, along with whatever departing staff leave behind. Colorado’s investigator flagged that handover too.

Keep a record that allows a check afterward. The audit worked because the paper existed. The corporate version is a dated record of who approved each sensitive change, and of which accounts were reviewed and by whom. When something does go wrong, you read a log instead of reconstructing a week of email, and you can show the mistake went no further than you designed it to.

What vCISO Lite would and wouldn’t change

No software prevents the mistake, which is the point of this note. Here’s the honest split.

×What it wouldn’t fix
The mistake itself.

Someone will still click the perfect email or put a password in the wrong place. Nothing on this list stops that, and nothing should claim to.

The lure arriving.

AI-written email will reach inboxes, and a text in an encrypted chat app never touches a filter. Delivery is your email and messaging providers’ problem.

The settings themselves.

Approval rules live in your finance system and account scopes in your identity provider. A compliance platform can check they’re required and in place. It doesn’t configure them for you.

✓What it would make materially better
The two-person rule becomes a standard that runs.

Enforcement turns a policy line like “vendor bank-detail changes and MFA resets need a second approver, confirmed outside the requesting channel” into a process standard with a named owner and a scheduled check. “Do we actually do this?” gets an answer with evidence behind it.

Outside and departing access gets reviewed on a calendar.

The contractor, vendor and leaver access review becomes a cycle that opens on its own date: every account, its scope, its end date, signed off by an owner. It runs before someone outside finds the problem, not after.

The record exists before anyone asks.

Each cycle’s result is sealed on the Evidence Graph, a chain of custody for your controls. An auditor, insurer or regulator can see what ran and who signed off without the company rebuilding it from email.

Our read

Three positions, in order of confidence.

One. Colorado is the best security case study of 2024 that almost no business read. It was covered as a political embarrassment, and it was one. It was also a real insider mistake, public for four months at the most sensitive possible moment and missed at every chance to catch it, that did no damage. Most corporate post-mortems describe a mistake that was caught too late and could reach everything. Colorado’s was caught too late and could reach almost nothing.

Two. The news in the FBI/CISA warning is the admission, not the advice. The agencies have said in writing that the tells people were trained to spot no longer work, and the insider guidance filed the click alongside every other honest mistake. A security program scored on click rates is measuring the one thing everyone now agrees you can’t control. The number that matters is how far a single mistake can go.

Three. Designing for the mistake is the cheap part of security. Two people on the dangerous actions, no AI agent holding a whole key, an end date on every outside account, and a record you can check afterward. None of it needs new technology. Elections run it with volunteers, on deadline, under public scrutiny. A company with a permanent security budget has fewer excuses.

Primary sources